Tag Archives: support

KLCI: The Inevitable Correction


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At last, after more than a week of bullishness, the market formed a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday (as indicated by the red arrow) and today our local index lost 16.31 points, with the number of losers outnumbered the gainers greatly. KLCI was dragged mainly by three of the heavyweights – Maybank [1155], Genting [3182] and IOICorp [1961]. Moving on, we need to watch a few support levels closely (1752 and 1743) as there is a high chance that the index will rebound at these levels. A break of the 1743 support will send our composite index down to the resistance-turned support of 1718, which is an ultra-strong support level. Let’s take a brief look at the two “culprits” that caused the fall of our index today and see whether there’s any profit opportunity. We start with our Gaming giant, Genting [3182].

KLCI: Pre-Election Dip

On the last trading day before the long-waited general election, the local index took a dive and broke the 1700 psychological support. The index moved down by as much as 28 points before recovering by around 10 points to close at 1694.77. This came after a divergence in the true sentiment of the market with the index movement (one of many of the signals under Sentiment Analysis) appeared on the 30th of April, sending strong signal of bearishness.

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Stock to Watch: Aeoncr [5139]

Despite the local index edging up slightly, the overall sentiment of our market continues to be weak today, with the ratio of losers to gainers stands at a high of 2.18. The uncertainty of the result of the coming election is inducing most of the market participants to “sell on strength”, causing most shares that have rose dramatically in the past few months – property stocks especially (e.g. Tebrau, KSL, UEMLand) – to begin reversing, thereby forming the “wave a” of Elliot Wave (The first leg of the downtrend that follows the 3-waves uptrend). Property play is not over yet but at the moment, with the current weak market sentiment, it is definitely not safe to enter into a position. We will take a brief look on Aeoncr [5139] instead, which is also beginning to reverse from its 3-months uptrend.

aeoncr

Stocks to Watch: Padini [7052], Sendai [5205]

As requested by some of the readers, we shall discuss on Padini and Sendai today. Let’s begin our analysis with Padini [7052].

padini (1)
Ever since the uptrend was projected in late February, share price of Padini has been moving up gradually. Just recently, it hit a short-term high of RM2.10 on the 9th of April before falling for 4 consecutive days, partly due to poor market sentiment. The share price was dragged below its upward channel to its horizontal support of RM1.86 yesterday and after trading at a tight range, price managed to close higher at RM1.88 today. The signal for potential reversal and limited downside risk at the current price level means that long-term investors/ traders should start accumulating this share now. While the upward channel is no longer valid, the uptrend remains intact as long as the crucial RM1.86/RM1.85 support is not breached.

Stock to Watch: KSL [5038]

KSL

Why is it that KSL is attractive on the 13th of March when it is trading at such a high price compared to the past few months? In making our analysis on this property company, we shall employ day-to-day bar analysis as well as candlestick pattern. We start from 7th of March, when price shot up and closed above RM1.75 with high volume, indicating bullishness. The day after, a doji with long tail is formed, reflecting a possible reversal. For a reversal to be confirmed, the share price must close below the immediate support of RM1.75 in the next few days. On the 11th of March, the share price opened higher and closed lower at the immediate resistance, making the reversal very likely. At this point we should be expecting another black candlestick on the next day that will bring the share lower and thus confirm the downtrend. But instead of moving down, it moved up and managed to close near the high on the 12th of March. This price development that went against the expectation signaled a possible continuation of trend. The bullishness is further supported by its ability to not just stay above the immediate support of RM1.75 but also closed near its high on the 13th of March, when the broad market shed more than 10 points. Let’s check its relative volume density (RVD) as well.

Stock to Watch: Zhulian [5131]

Given the strong track record of the company, coupled with its high dividend yield, Zhulian will definitely attract the attention of both the fundamentalists and technical analysts as it slides further. We need to be quick in determining the level of which the risk-reward ratio is low enough for us to take a comfortable position before it stages a rebound. To determine this level, we need to look at its supports and resistances (S/R).

Stock to Watch: Airasia [5099]

AffinInvestment Bank has been giving a buy call on Airasia with a price target of RM3.70 (an upside of 37% from yesterday’s closing) ever since its share price was hammered from its July top due to (1) possible increase in competition from Malindo Airways, a joint venture between Malaysia’s National Aerospace and Defence Industry and Indonesia’s Lion Air which is expected to start operating in May this year, and (2) adjustment of funds as Airasia seize to become one of our index constituents. In fact, most, if not all, of the research houses have price targets that are higher than yesterday’s closing price. So given the bullishness on Airasia – which comes mainly from an increase in its number of passengers carried and its growth capacity which translates to higher revenue - and its current favorable price, should we buy now?