Tag Archives: relative volume density

Stocks to Watch: Instaco [0069], MYEG [0138], MAA [1198]

First and foremost, I apologize for being absent for so long as I was busy with the preparation of a trading software that is expected to launch in November. Let’s discuss briefly 3 shares that I think will make a move in this coming week.

instaco

Instaco [0069], a technology company that got beaten down after its bonus issue of warrant, is expected to move higher in the near term. Lows are getting higher and higher, indicating that the break above the ascending triangle should be around the corner. The average accumulation price by the smart money is at RM0.29, estimated using my proprietary Relative Volume Density (RVD). RHB Investment Bank gives this company a target price of RM0.46 per share.

Stock to Watch: GAB [3255]

The composite index edged higher today with oil and gas counters getting most of the attraction (Perdana, Penergy, Alam, and Dayang). Looking at the current market sentiment, the index is expected to stay strong and will re-test the 1793 resistance level again in days to come.

The focus of today’s discussion would be on GAB [3255], a brewing company which had dipped by more than 20% from it’s highest high in just a month. Investors who kept on adding their position as the share price eased are now worrying that their decision to buy could be a huge mistake. If you fall into this category of people, let me assure you that the share is about to rebound very soon. So don’t fret. As for the others who are looking to take a position… let us look at the chart first.

gab

Stock to Watch: Pantech [5125]

Looking at the chart of our local index, we can see that the index is now consolidating within a 28 points range (Resistance of 1793; Support of 1765). A spinning top was formed on Thursday with slightly greater volume than the previous days, signalling a possible reversal. In fact, with both the Hang Seng (Hong Kong index) and Nikkei (Japan index) forming long lower-tail spinning top with high volume, the possible reversal of these two leading market in Asia could potentially pull our index up on Monday, thereby creating a better sentiment for shares to reverse/ move higher.

klci (3) (1)
Having said that, there are still plenty of oppportunities for us to tap on and among them is the popular oil and gas small-cap, Pantech, which would be the focus of today’s discussion. While the expected better sentiment on Monday could turn the share price around, thereby taking away the opportunity to profit, it would be best if we could get ourselves ready in the event that the expected better sentiment does not materialize (Possible since at the time of this writing, US index is falling).

Stocks to Watch: CCM [2879], Tebrau [1589]

The market is extremely bullish today. The index rose by a staggering 17.39 points, with gainers outnumbered the losers by 298 shares. Some of the shares had managed to create new highs (UOADev, Tenaga, Pwroot) and are definitely worth the look as they may continue their rise tomorrow. But let’s not discuss about these shares because despite their possibility of continuing their upward movement tomorrow, the risk-reward ratio will rise slowly as price increases, making any trades in these shares to be increasingly dangerous. We are more interested in finding out shares that have yet to join the hype and are preparing to surge. We shall begin our analysis with CCM [2879].

CCM

Stock to Watch: KSL [5038]

KSL

Why is it that KSL is attractive on the 13th of March when it is trading at such a high price compared to the past few months? In making our analysis on this property company, we shall employ day-to-day bar analysis as well as candlestick pattern. We start from 7th of March, when price shot up and closed above RM1.75 with high volume, indicating bullishness. The day after, a doji with long tail is formed, reflecting a possible reversal. For a reversal to be confirmed, the share price must close below the immediate support of RM1.75 in the next few days. On the 11th of March, the share price opened higher and closed lower at the immediate resistance, making the reversal very likely. At this point we should be expecting another black candlestick on the next day that will bring the share lower and thus confirm the downtrend. But instead of moving down, it moved up and managed to close near the high on the 12th of March. This price development that went against the expectation signaled a possible continuation of trend. The bullishness is further supported by its ability to not just stay above the immediate support of RM1.75 but also closed near its high on the 13th of March, when the broad market shed more than 10 points. Let’s check its relative volume density (RVD) as well.

CAP [5229]: A Prediction Using Relative Volume Density (RVD) Analysis

Relative Volume Density (RVD) analysis is a proprietary technical tool that encompass the element of time in price-volume analysis. It can be seen as an extension of Robin Mesch’s market profile analysis as the underlying assumption that market moves from one equilibrium to another or deviate temporary from equilibrium and revert shortly thereafter is similar. By incorporating the most important element in the universe – time – RVD analysis is considered more superior than market profile analysis because of its ability in identifying not just the levels of equilibrium but also the timing of reversal. Such a creation is inspired by the inability of traditional technical tools in identifying pivot points of speculative shares with laser-sharp accuracy. Let’s look at how we can apply RVD analysis in catching the falling knife of CAP, which ran by 20+% in just 2 days.

cap

Padini [7052]: Ready for a Huge Directional Move

Padini’s year-long uptrend was broken in September and had been on a downtrend since. The wide swings during the downtrend offered a number of opportunities to believers of short-term mean-reversion and experts in candlesticks pattern. The downtrend ended in early December after completing the falling 5-way sequence of the Elliot Wave and it’s share price has been moving sideway since.

Padini
The range which the share price has been trading for the past 3 months is tightening slowly and is converging at around the Fibonacci confluence zone of RM1.82. This is not surprising given that Fibonacci confluence zone, being the price level where multiple Fibonacci ratios align, has always been the level where price equilibrates in the medium term. The price movements of Padini for the past 1 year have successfully form a D-shape, which according to Robin Mesch signals the end of a cycle of market activity and the beginning of a new one. This essentially means that the share price is poised to make a huge directional move and it is expected to happen anytime soon given that price has been moving sideway for 3 months. Such time prediction is in accordance to Gann’s observation that “majority of trends occur in time period of 3 (3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months)”.