Category Archives: General

Short-term Bearish, Long-term Bullish.

2 weeks had passed since I last express my bearishness (on the night of 16th June, in the private group where all my students are in). I hope none of you get caught in the recent market volatility. Here’s a quick update.

I mentioned on the June 21st that there should be a technical rebound following a 3-days dip and true enough it happened. I taught you guys before on how to judge the sustainability of a downtrend. If there’s no strength in the technical rebound, it is highly likely that the market will fall further. The technical rebound happened on the 22nd and 23rd of June (2 days) barely recover 21st June’s losses (1 day). That shows extreme weakness – not much bargain hunting.

28th of June was interesting. The index went from +8 at the opening to -8 at the closing. The major shift in sentiment for the day (or the black candlestick alone) is enough to tell you that the market will definitely fall further (big boys are selling on strength aggressively, knowing that its going to fall further). This sort of day will only trap very short-term traders who might jump in at the opening, believing that he’s wrong on his bearishness. For the majority of you whom I encourage only swing and trend trading, you should not get emotional on a strong opening.

The market continued to drift lower and on Friday it tested the previous high of 1757-1760. Again, I believe this should be a temporary support and not the major turning point as by now it should be quite clear to you that the market is in a downtrend (lower high lower low). A technical rebound should happen again early next week and I shall watch the strength of this technical rebound closely. I strongly believe that this is just the beginning of more sell-down as the index just broke below the 50dMA line for the first time in 6 months. Also, global indices are experiencing huge volatility in the last 2 weeks (trending downward), further strengthening my view. Foreigners are starting to sell heavily as well – last friday was the first time in 6 months foreigners sold more than RM200million worth of shares in a single day (net). As such, I’m maintaining my short-term bearish, long-term bullish view of the market. Expect the market to stay sideway above 1760 throughout July, at best, or down towards the 1730 area, at worst. I will be staying extra conservative as the notorious months of August and September  are just around the corner. If you are still an amateur, I strongly suggest that you stay conservative as well.

–If you remember what I taught in the conference, an important low should be formed next week and most likely to be at the end of the week.–

Gamblers, Amateurs or Professionals?

“The market fell by 4 straight days. In total, the index loss about a hundred points without any sign of rebounding. More than 80% of the share prices were below yesterday closing. Of the small amount of gainers, most are up by merely a bid and closed with huge ask queue. Investors and traders were mostly panic. Then a savior appeared. He boasted in the social media on his 1-day-5-digits trading gain despite the bad market. With the public scrambling in search for a solution which this trader seems to have, he immediately got everyone’s attention. Drowned by an overnight popularity, he proudly shared his “profound” analysis. Amateurs who are eager to make some quick bucks in the dampening market were quick to apply the new methods learned – only to lose more money.”

What went wrong?

All the Way UP

On January 7, I posted in my Facebook group telling to buy. On January 9, my Sentiment Analysis shows a clear uptrend. Today, on January 15, gainers still outnumbered losers. This good sentiment streak had last for 7 days, the longest since August 2013. If you bought something for mid-term, HOLD them. If you are trading, you could switch your portfolio to shares that require longer holding period to realize bigger gains. If you are not in the market yet, don’t be afraid because this Bull is going to last for some time. Do more homework today, look for continuation pattern like flags (my favourite, which I see a lot today), retracement with low vol etc.

My view for the market? Super Bull. From my conversation with the people around me, I realize that they are several views on 2015 outlook: Rise a little, drop a little, or drop a lot. No one actually dare to say RISE A LOT. Because of that I would bet that the market will rise a lot this year. Of course, I don’t base my analysis on just that. Here are some of the reason why I think the market is going all the way UP.

7 Key Takeaways For You To Be a Better Trader/ Investor in 2015

strategy

The volatility spike that occured at the second half of 2014 is one that is not seen since 2011. This causes a lot of confusion among the public on whether 2015 will be a good year. Regardless of what the general consensus are, if you are discipline and have the right investment/ trading strategies, 2015 should not be a big problem for you. So here you are, 7 key takeaways that one could learn from the happenings in 2014 which will help you in becoming a better trader/ investor, not just in 2015, but in all your trading/ investment years.